Dış ticaret, ekonomik yardım, doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve göçmen dövizleri Türkiye'den olan göçü frenleyebilir mi? - Can trade, aid, foreign direct investments and remittances curb migration from Turkey?
In this study we examine the macro-determinants of Turkish migration to Germany over the period 1969–2004 by means of cointegration analysis. We find that trade and factor flows indeed influence migration and play a role in managing Turkish migration in the short as well as in the long run. How-ever, the income differential between Turkey and Germany is the most important factor in determining migration flows and the effects of trade and factor flows on migration in the short as well as in the long run are mixed. Therefore, we argue that migration could be better managed when the dynamic gains from trade and factor flows are considered.
Bu çalışmada Türkiye'den Almanya’ya olan göçü etkileyen makro faktörleri 1969-2004 yılları için eşbütünleşme analizi ile incelemekteyiz. Dış ticaret ve fak-tör hareketlerinin göçü gerçekten etkilediğini, kısa ve uzun vadede Türkiye'den olan göçü tedvir etmekte önemli rol oynadığını bulduk. Fakat Türkiye ile Almanya arasındaki gelir farklılıklarının göçü etkileyen en önemli faktör ol-duğunu, ticaret ve faktör hareketliliğinin kısa ve uzun vade etkilerinin farklı olduğunu da bulduk. Bu nedenle göçü tedvir etmekte dış ticaret ve faktör hare-ketliliğinden kaynaklanacak olan dinamik kazancın göz önünde bulundurulması gerektiğini tartışmaktayız.
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