Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Subscription or Fee Access

Natural Disasters and International Migration from Sub-Saharan Africa

Wim Naudé

Abstract


This paper employs a systems GMM model using data on 43 Sub-Saharan African countries from 1960 to 2005 to find that natural disasters have a significant impact on migration from SSA, raising the net out-migration by around 0.37 persons per 1,000. No direct evidence was found that natural disasters lead to further migration through impacting on GDP growth. It is however established that natural disasters is associated with a slightly increased probability that a country will be in conflict in a subsequent period. The frequency of natural disasters will not influence the duration of the conflict. It is concluded that natural disasters is an important determinant of migration from SSA. The findings in this paper imply that global climate change, through leading to more extreme weather events, will contribute to further migration from the continent.


Keywords


natural disasters, international migration, climate change, conflict, Africa

Full Text:

PDF

References


Adepoju, A. (2007). ‘Migration in Sub-Saharan Africa: Background paper commissioned by the Nordic Africa Institute. Lagos, 14 September. Available at www.regeringen.se/content/1/c6/08/88/66/730473a9.pdf.

Alesina, A., Devleeschauer, A., Easterly, W., Kurlat, S. and Wacziarg, R. (2003). ‘Fractionalization’, Journal of Economic Growth, 8. 155-194.

Arezki, R., and F. Van der Ploeg (2007). ‘Can the Natural Resource Curse be Turned into a Blessing? The Role of Trade Policies and Institutions’. IMF Working Paper WP/07/55. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund.

Black, R. (2004). ‘Migration and Pro-Poor Policy in Africa’. Working Paper C6. Brighton: Sussex Centre for Migration Research.

Bogardi, J.J. (2007). ‘Environmental Migration: Flight or Choice? Presentation at a Panel Discussion of UNU-EHS, UNDP, IOM, UNHCR, UNU-ONY at UN Headquarters, New York, 16 May.

Clemens, M. A., and G. Pettersson (2008). ‘New Data on African Health Professionals Abroad’. Human Resources for Health, 6 (1) doi: 10.1186/1478-4491-6-1 (article in press).

Collier, P. and Hoeffler, A. (1998). ‘On the Economic Causes of Civil War’, Oxford Economic Papers, 50 (4): 563-573.

CRED (2004). EM-DAT. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters, Brussels: University of Louvain.

Crisp, J. (2006). ‘Forced Displacement in Africa: Dimensions, Difficulties, and Policy Directions’. Background paper no. 4 prepared for the CeSPI and SID International Conference on Migration and Development, 6-8 July. Rome.

ECA (Economic Commission for Africa) (2006). International Migration and Development: Implications for Africa. Executive Summary. Addis Ababa (www.uneca.org/popia).

Gallup, J. L., J. D. Sachs, and A. D. Mellinger (1999). ‘Geography and Economic Development’. International Regional Science Review, 22 (2): 179-232.

Hatton, T. J., and J. G. Williamson (2001). ‘Demographic and Economic Pressure on Emigration out of Africa’. IZA Discussion Paper 250. Bonn: IZA.

Hatton, T.J. and J.G. Williamson (2003). ‘Demographic and Economic Pressure on Emigration out of Africa’, Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 105 (3). 465-486.

Hendrix, C.S. and Glaser, S.M. (2007). ‘Trends and Triggers: Climate, Climate Change and Civil Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa’, Political Geography, 26 (6): 695-715.

IDMC (Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre) (2007). Internal Displacement: Global Overview of Trends and Developments in 2006. http://www.internal-displacement.org/idmc/website/resources.nsf/(httpPublications)/6F9D5C47FA0DCCE2C12572BF002B9212?OpenDocument

Konseiga, A. (2007). ‘Household Migration Decisions as Survival Strategy: The Case of Burkina Faso’. Journal of African Economies, 16 (2): 198-233.

Loayza, N., Olaberria, E., Rigolini, J. and Christiaensen, L. (2009). ‘Natural disasters and growth - going beyond the averages’, Policy Research Working paper No. 4980.The World Bank.

Lucas, R.E.B. (2006). ‘Migration and Economic Development in Africa: A Review of Evidence’, Journal of African Economies, 15 (2): 337-395.

Mafukidze, J. (2006). ‘A Discussion of Migration and Migration Patterns and Flows in Africa’. In C. Cross, D. Gelderblom, N. Roux, and J. Mafukidze (eds), Views on Migration in Sub-Saharan Africa: Proceedings of An African Migration Alliance Workshop. Pretoria: HSRC Press, 103-29.

Miguel, E., S. Satyanath, and E. Sergenti (2004). ‘Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach’. Journal of Political Economy, 112 (4): 725-53.

Myburgh A. (2004). ‘Explaining Emigration from South Africa’. South African Journal of Economics, 72 (1): 125–51.

Naudé, W.A. (2008). ‘Conflict, Disasters and No Jobs: Reasons for International Migration from Sub-Saharan Africa’, UNU-WIDER Research Paper RP2008-85, Helsinki, Finland.

Naudé, W.A. (2009). ‘Forced Migration and Conflict in Sub-Saharan Africa’ (In Fischer, C. And Vollmer, R. eds. Migration and Displacement in Sub- Saharan Africa The Security-Migration Nexus II. BICC Brief 39. Bonn : Bonn International Centre for Conversion. Pp. 21-28).

Rodriguez, J., Vos, F., Below, R. and Guha-Sapir, D. (2009). Annual Disaster Statistical Review 2008. The Numbers and Trends. CRED.

Reuveny, R. (2007). ‘Climate Change-induced Migration and Violent Conflict’. Political Geography, 26: 656-73.

Smith, P. J. (2007). ‘Climate Change, Mass Migration and the Military Response’. Orbis, Fall: 617 33.

Solimano, A. (ed.) (2007). The International Mobility of Talent: Types, Causes, and Development Impact. Oxford: Oxford University Press for UNU-WIDER.

Stern, N. (2006). The Economics of Climate Change (The Stern Report). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Welsch, H. (2008). ‘Resource Abundance and Internal Armed Conflict: Types of Natural Resources and the Incidence of New Wars’, Ecological Economics, doi 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2008.01.004 (article in press).


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.




Transnational Press London

Copyright © 2003-2016 Migration Letters / Transnational Press London | All rights reserved | Contact Us
TRANSNATIONAL PRESS LONDON LTD. IS A COMPANY REGISTERED IN ENGLAND AND WALES No. 8771684.