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Educated in New Zealand and staying on? A parameter simulation analysis

Jan Jan Soon


There is a non-trivial probability of students remaining abroad after completion of studies outside their home countries. Departing from typical literature, this paper incorporates simulations of parameters obtained from a multinomial logit model in revealing why international students studying abroad intend to stay abroad or to return home. Micro-level data are obtained from a sample of 623 full-time international students studying at tertiary level programmes in two New Zealand universities. Parameter simulations enable the plotting of the distributions of outcome probabilities, where the distributions would show how distinguishable the effect of an explanatory variable has on the probability of remaining abroad or returning home. Favourable perceptions on the type of lifestyle in one’s home country are found to have a positive impact on the probability of returning home. Surprisingly, good perceptions on wage competitiveness do not appear to be a predominant reason behind the probability of remaining abroad or returning home.


brain drain; international student migration; parameter simulation; discrete choice model; destination country

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