Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Subscription or Fee Access

Turkish migration in Europe: EU accession and migration flows

Wadim Strielkowski, Ondřej Glazar


This paper analyses the impact of Turkey's potential EU membership on emigration from Turkey to the European Union. We apply panel data estimators using the data on emigration from EU15 countries into Germany and the Netherlands in order to construct possible future scenarios of Turkish migration to the EU. Three scenarios of migration, pessimistic, realistic and optimistic (depending on the fears related to the expected impact of Turkish migration on the EU labour markets), are drawn and future migration from Turkey into Germany and the Netherlands during the next 25 years is discussed in detail. We conclude that Turkish EU accession, should it happen in the foreseeable future, will not have any serious consequences in terms of massive migration flows.


Economics of migration; Turkey; EU enlargement; panel data; seemingly unrelated regressions

Full Text:



Akkoyunlu, Ş. (2010). “Can trade, aid, foreign direct investments and remittances curb migration from Turkey?”, Migration Letters, 7 (2): 144-158

Akkoyunlu, Ş. (2012a). “Intervening Opportunities and Competing Migrants in Turkish migration to Germany, 1969-2008”, Migration Letters, 9(2): 155-175

Akkoyunlu, Ş. (2012b). Forecasting Turkish Workers’ Remittances from Germany during the Financial Crisis. In: Sirkeci, I., Cohen, J. H., & Ratha, D. (eds.) (2012). Migration and remittances during the global financial crisis and beyond. World Bank Publications

Alvarez-Plata, P., Brücker, H., Siliverstovs, B. (2003). Potential migration from Central and Eastern Europe into the EU-15: An update. European Commission, Directorate-General for Employment and Social Affairs, Unit A. 1.

AMECO (2008). AMECO database. Retrieved from: Accessed on: 10.09.2013

Biffl, G. (2012). “Turkey and Europe: the role of migration and trade in economic development”. Migration Letters, (9)1: 47-63

Boeri, T., Brücker, H. (2000). The Impact of Eastern Enlargement on Employment and La-bour Markets in the EU Member States. European integrated consortium, Berlin and Milan.

Cohen, J. H., Sirkeci, İ. (2011). Cultures of migration. University of Texas Press

Derviş, K., Gros, D., Öztrak, F., Işık, Y. (2004). Turkey and the European Budget - Pro-spects and Issues. EU-Turkey Working Paper No. 6.

Eurostat (2009), Eurostat labour and migration statistics. Retrieved from:

Flam, H. (2004). “Turkey and the EU: Politics and Economics of Accession”, CESifo Economic Studies, 50 (1): 171–210

Glazar, O., Strielkowski, W. (2010). “Turkey and the European Union: possible incidence of the EU accession on migration flows”. Prague Economic Papers, 3:218-235

Glazar, O., Strielkowski, W. (2012). Turkish migration in Europe: An economic analysis of possible EU accession on migration. Charles University in Prague, Faculty of social sciences, Prague

Güngör, N., D., Tansel, A. (2006). “Brain Drain from Turkey: An Investigation of Students’ Return Intentions”, IZA DP No. 2287: 1-44

Harris, J., Todaro, M. (1970). “Migration, Unemployment and Development: A Two-sector Analysis”, The American Economic Review, 60(1): 126-142

Hatton, T.J. (1995). “A Model of UK Emigration, 1870-1913”. Review of Economics and Statistics, 77: 407-415

Haviland, W. A., Prins, H. E. L., Walrath, D., McBride, B. (2010). Anthropology: The Human Challenge. Belmont, CA: Wadsworth Pub. Co.

Heper, M. (2005). “The European Union, the Turkish military and democracy”. South European society and politics, 10(1): 33-44

Inge, A. (2009). “Integration of Muslim Communities in Germany and Britain – success or failure?” Speech delivered at the International Conference “Integration of Muslim Communities in Germany and Britain – success or failure?”, May 28, 2009, SOAS. Available at: Retrieved on the 05.10.2013

Krämer, H. (2000). A changing Turkey: The challenge to Europe and the United States. Brookings Institution PressLammers, K. (2006). “The EU and Turkey – Economic Effects of Turkey’s Full Membership”, Intereconomics, 41 (5): 282-288

Lejour, A. M., de Mooij, R. A., Capel, C. H. (2004). Assessing the economic implications of Turkish accession to the EU (No. 56). CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

Marguiles, R. (1996) “Turkey and the European Union”, Middle East Report, No. 199, Turkey: Insolvent Ideologies, Fractured State (Apr. - Jun., 1996).

Martin, P. L., Sirkeci, I., Stark, E. (2012). “EDITORIAL: Migration and Develop-ment: Comparing Mexico-US and Turkey-Europe”, Migration Letters, 9 (1): 1-9

Martin, P., Midgley, E., Teitelbaum, M. (2001). “Migration and Development: Focus on Turkey”, International Migration Review, 35 (2): 596-605.

Muftuler-Bac, M. (1997). Turkey's Relations with a Changing Europe. Manchester: Man-chester University Press

OECD (2009). OECD database:

Quaisser, W., Wood, S. (2004). EU Member Turkey? Preconditions, Consequences and Integration Alternatives. Forost Arbeitspapier No.25, Munich.

Sari, O.L. (2003). “Migration and Development: the case of Turkish migration to Germany”, International Journal of Economic Development, 5 (2): 1-17

Sayari, S. (1986). “Migration policies of sending countries: perspectives on the Turkish experience”, The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 87-97.

Sayek, S., Selover, D. (2002). “International Interdependence and Business Cycle Transmission between Turkey and the European Union”, Southern Economic Journal, 69 (2): 206-238

Sirkeci, I. (2003). “Migration from Turkey to Germany: an ethnic analysis”. New Perspectives on Turkey, 2003(28-29): 189-208

Sirkeci, I., Cohen, J.H., Yazgan, P. (2012). “Turkish culture of migration: Flows between Turkey and Germany, socio-economic development and conflict”, Migration Letters, 1 (1): 33-46

Sirkeci, I., Esipova, N. (2013). “Turkish migration in Europe and desire to migrate to and from Turkey”. Border Crossing: Transnational Working Papers,2013(1301): 1-13

Sjaastad, L. (1962). “The Costs and Returns of Human Migration”. Journal of Political Economy, 70: 80-93.

SORT (2008), Statistical Office of the Republic of Turkey:

Statistics Netherlands (2012). Migration statistics. Retrieved from: Accessed on the 20.09.2013.

Statistisches Bundesamt (2012). Structurdaten zur Migrantion in Deutschland. Wiesbaden.

Tol, G. (2012). “Macro-environmental factors affecting integration: Turks in Germany and the Netherlands”. Migration Letters, 9(1): 25-32

The Central Bank of Republic Turkey (2009). Statistics. Retrieved from: Accessed on the 14.08.2013.

The World Bank (2009). Population projections. Retrieved from:

Ulgen, S., Zahariadis, Y. (2004). “The Future of Turkey-EU Trade Relations: Deepening vs. Widening”, EU-Turkey working paper No. 5, CEPS, Brussels.

United Nations (2008). Population projections. Retrieved from: Accessed on the 14.08.2013.


  • There are currently no refbacks.

Transnational Press London

Copyright © 2003-2016 Migration Letters / Transnational Press London | All rights reserved | Contact Us