Internal migration in Italy. Long-run analysis of push and pull factors across regions and macro-areas of the country.
The great majority of empirical studies on internal migration across Italian regions either ignores the long-run perspective of the phenomenon or do not consider push and pull factors separately. In addition, Centre-North to South flows, intra-South and intra-Centre-North migration have not been studied. We aim to fill this gap and tackle interregional migration flows from different geographical perspectives. We apply four panel data estimators with different statistical assumptions and show that long-run migration flows from the Mezzogiorno towards Centre-Northern regions are well explained by a gravity model in which per capita GDP, unemployment and population play a major role. On the contrary, migration flows from Centre-North to South has probably much to do with other social and demographic factors. Finally, intra Centre-North and intra South migration flows roughly obey to the gravity model, though not all explicative variables are relevant.
Attanasio, O. and Padoa-Schioppa, F. (1991), “Regional inequalities, migration and mismatch in Italy, 1960-1986”. In Padoa-Schioppa, F. (Ed.), Mismatch and Labour Mobility, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
Baltagi B. H., Bresson G, and Pirotte A. (2003), “Fixed effects, random effects or Hausman–Taylor? A pretest estimator”. Economics Letters, 79: 361-369.
Basile R. and Causi M. (2007), “Le determinanti dei flussi migratori nelle province italiane: 1991-2001”. Economia & Lavoro, XLI: 139-159.
Bonasia M. and Napolitano O. (2012), “Determinants of interregional migration flows: The role of environmental factors in the Italian case”. Manchester School, 80: 525-544.
Brunello G., Lupi C. and Ordine P. (2001), “Widening differences in Italian regional unemployment”. Labour Economics, 8: 103-129.
Cannari L., Nucci F. and Sestito P. (2000), “Geographic labour mobility and the cost of housing: evidence from Italy”. Applied Economics, 32: 1899-1906.
Daveri F. and Faini R: (1999), “Where do migrants go?”. Oxford Economic Papers, 51: 595-622.
De Hoyos R. and Sarafidis V. (2006), “Testing for cross-sectional dependence on panel-data models”, The Stata Journal, 6: 482-496.
Driscoll J. C. and Kraay A. C. (1998), “Consistent covariance matrix estimation with spatially dependent panel data”. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80: 549-560.
Egger P. and Pfaffermayr M. (2003), “The proper panel econometric specification of the gravity equation: A three-way model with bilateral interaction effects”. Empirical Economics, 28: 571-580.
Elhorst (2010), “Spatial panel data models”. In Fischer M. M. and Getis A. (Ed.), Handbook of Applied Spatial Analysis. Software Tools, Methods and Applications, London, Springer Heidelberg.
Etzo I. (2011), “The determinants of the recent interregional migration flows in Italy: A panel data analysis”. Journal of Regional Science, 51: 948-966.
Fachin S. (2007), “Long-run trends in internal migration in Italy: a study in panel cointegration with dependent units”. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22: 401-428.
Feenstra, R. C. (2004), Advanced International Trade: Theory and Evidence. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
Fratesi, U. and Percoco, M. (2014) Selective migration, regional growth and convergence: Evidence from Italy, Regional Studies 48, 1650-1668.
Frees E. W. (1995), “Assessing cross-sectional correlation in panel data”, Journal of Econometrics, 69: 393-414.
Hausman J. A. and Taylor W. E. (1981), “Panel data and unobservable individual effects”. Econometrica, 49: 1377-1398.
ISTAT (2012), Le Recente Mobilità Territoriale in Italia. Le Migrazioni dal Mezzogiorno al Centro-Nord nel Periodo 1995-2008. Argomenti n. 44, ISTAT, Rome.
ISTAT (various years, a), Movimento migratorio della popolazione residente. Iscrizioni e cancellazioni anagrafiche. ISTAT, Rome.
ISTAT (various years, b), Forze di lavoro. ISTAT, Rome.
Karemera D., Iwuagwu V. and Davis B. (2000), “A gravity model analysis of international migration to North America”. Applied Economics, 32: 1745-1755.
Lamonica G. and Zagaglia B. (2013), “The determinants of internal mobility in Italy, 1995-2006: A comparison of Italians and resident foreigners”. Demographic Research, 29: 407-440.
Mayda A. M. (2010), “International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows”. Journal of Population Economics, 23: 1249-1274.
Mocetti S and Porello C. (2012), “Le nuove migrazioni interne: tendenze nuove di un vecchio fenomeno”. Rivista di Politica Economica: 275-310.
Ortega F. and Peri G. (2009), “The Causes and Effects of International Migrations: Evidence from OECD Countries 1980-2005”. NBER Working Papers n. 14833.
Pedersen P. J., Pytlikova M. and Smith N. (2008), “Selection and network effects – Migration flows into OECD countries 1990-2000”. European Economic Review, 52: 1160-1186.
Redding S. and Venables A. J. (2004), “Economic geography and international inequality”. Journal of International Economics, 62: 53-82.
SVIMEZ (2011), 150 Anni di Statistiche Italiane: Nord e Sud, 1861-2011, Il Mulino, Bologna.
- There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright © 2003-2016 Migration Letters / Transnational Press London | All rights reserved | Contact Us
TRANSNATIONAL PRESS LONDON LTD. IS A COMPANY REGISTERED IN ENGLAND AND WALES No. 8771684.