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Predicting return intentions in Madrid

Raquel Caro, Mercedes Fernández, Consuelo Valbuena


Although Spain has only recently turned out to be an immigrant-receiving country, because of the economic downturn, Spanish authorities are becoming increasingly concerned about return migration. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the underlying variables of return intention of migrants in the Autonomous Community of Madrid in order to extract policy implications in the return arena. The microdata source is the Regional Immigration Survey 2011–2012. Our main finding is that having a job in Spain is the most important constraint to returning. In any case, return intentions vary with age groups, so policy design should be different according to this variable.


Return migration; return intentions; multinomial logit; social ties; economic variables

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