Open Access Open Access  Restricted Access Subscription or Fee Access

Macroeconomic impact of remittances on output growth: Evidence from Turkey

Aysıt Tansel, Pınar Yaşar


This study estimates a Keynesian simultaneous, dynamic macro-econometric model to investigate the impact of remittances on key macro variables such as consumption, investment, imports and income in Turkey. The estimated impact and dynamic multipliers indicate that impact of remittances on consumption, imports and income are all positive and reduce gradually while that on investment wears out in the second year. The impact multiplier for income implies a substantial increase in income due to remittances through the multiplier process. The remittances-induced output growth rate is highest during the early 1970s and the early 1980s, but negligible during the other years.


Remittances; Dynamic Model; Remittances-Induced Output Growth

Full Text:



Abadan-Unat, N., R, Keleş, R. Pennix, H. van Renselaar, L. van Velzen and L. Yenisey (Eds.) (1975). Göç ve Gelişme: İşgücü Göçünün Boğazlıyan İlçesindeki Etkilerine İlişkin Bir Araştır-ma, Ankara: Ajans-Türk Matbaası.

Acosta, P. A. (2006). “Labor Supply, School Attendance and Remittances from International Migration: The Case of El Salvador,” Washington, D.C.: World Bank Policy research Working Paper No. 3903.

Acosta, P. A., E. K. K. Lartey, and F. Mandelman (2007). “Remittances and Dutch Disease”, FRB of Atlanta Working Paper, No. 2007-8.

Adams, R. and J. Page (2005). “Do International Migration and Remittances reduce Poverty in Developing Countries?” World Development, 33: 1645-1669.

Aggarwal, R., A. Demirguc-Kunt, and M. S. M. Peria (2006). “Do Workers' Remittances Pro-mote Financial Development?” Washington, D.C.: World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, No. 3957.

Athukorala, P. (1993). “International Labor Migration in the Asia-Pacific Region: Patterns, Policies and Economic Implications,” Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, 7: 28-57.

Aydaş, O.T., B. Neyapti and K. Metin-Özcan (2005). “Determinants of Workers' Remittanc-es: The Case of Turkey,” Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 41(3): 53-69.

Boratav, K. (2003). Türkiye İktisat Tarihi: 1908-2002, Ankara: Imge Kitabevi, Seventh Edition.

Bourdet, Y. and H. Falck (2003). “Emigrants’ Remittances and Dutch Disease in Cape Verde,” Lund, Sweden: Lund University Department of Economics Working Paper 2003:11.

Burgess, R. and V. Haksar (2005). “Migration and Foreign Remittances in the Philippines,” Washington, D.C.: IMF Working Paper No. 05/111.

Catrinescu, N., M. Leon-Ledesma, M. Piracha and B. Quillin (2006). “Remittances, Institutions and Economic Growth,” Bonn, Germany: Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) Dis-cussion Paper No. 2139.

Chami, R., C. Fullenkamp, and S. Jahjah (2003). “Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development?” Washington, D.C.: IMF Working Paper No. 03/189.

Faini, R. (2002) “Migration, Remittances and Growth,” Paper presented at UNU-WIDER conference on Poverty, International Migration and Asylum, 27-28 September. Hel-sinki: UNU-WIDER.

Gitmez, A. (1991) “Migration without Development: The case of Turkey,” in Papademetriou, D.G. and Martin, P. (eds.) The Unsettled Relationship: Labour Migration and Economic De-velopment, New York: Contributions in Labour Studies, No. 33, Greenwood Press, pp.115-134.

Glytsos, N. P. (1993). “Measuring the Income Effects of Migrant Remittances: A Methodolog-ical Approach Applied to Greece”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 42: 131-168.

Glytsos, N. P. (2002a). “A Macroeconometric Model of the Effects of Migrant Remittances in Mediterranean Countries,” in I. Sırageldin (ed.), Human Capital Population Economics in the Middle East, Cairo, Egypt: An Economic Research Forum Edition, The American University in Cairo Press, pp. 300-325.

Glytsos, N. P. (2002b). “Dynamic Effects of Migrant Remittances on Growth: An Economet-ric Model with an Application to Mediterranean Countries,” Discussion Paper, No. 74 0505014, Labor and Demography, Economics Working Paper Archive at Washington University in St.Louis.

Glytsos, N. P. (2002c). “A Model of Remittance Determination Applied to Middle East and North Africa Countries”, Discussion Paper, No. 73 0505016, Labor and Demography, Economics Working Paper Archive at Washington University in St.Louis.

Gökdere, A.Y. (1978). Yabancı Ülkelere İşgücü Akımı ve Türk Ekonomisi Üzerine Etkileri, Ankara: Türkiye İş Bankası Kültür Yayinlari: 196.

Guilano, P. and M. Ruiz-Arranz (2005). “Remittances, Financial Development, and Growth,” Washington, D.C.: IMF Working Paper No. 05/234.

Gupta, P. (2005). “Macroeconomic Determinants of Remittances: Evidence from India,” Washington, D.C.: IMF Working Paper No. 05/224.

Icduygu, A. (2006). “International Migrants Remittances in Turkey,” Florence, Italy: CARIM Research Reports, No. 07, European University Institute.

Intriligator, M. D., R. Bodkin and C. Hsiao (1996). Econometric Models, Techniques and Applica-tions, Second Edition, New Jersey: Prentice- Hall.

Kapur, D. (2004). “Remittances: The New Development Mantra?” New York: Discussion Paper Series, No. 29, G-24, United Nations.

Keely, C. B, Tran, B. N. (1989). “Remittances from Labour Migration: Evaluations, Perfor-mance and Implications,” International Migration Review, 23(3): 500-525.

Koc, I. and I. Onan (2004). “International Migrants’ Remittances and Welfare Status of the Left-Behind Families in Turkey,” International Migration Review, 38(1): 78-112.

Lean-Ledesma, M. and M. Piracha (2001). “International Migration and the Role of Remittanc-es in Eastern Europe,” Kent, UK: Department of Economics, University of Kent at Canterbury Discussion Paper No. 1/ 13.

Lucas, R. E. B. (2004). “International Migration to the High Income Countries: Some Conse-quences for Economic Development in the Sending Countries,” Brussels, Belgium: Paper prepared for the Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics, 10-11 May.

Martin, P. (1991). The Unfinished Story: Turkish Labour Migration to Western Europe, Geneva: International Labour Organization.

Mishra, P. (2005). “Macroeconomic Impact of Remittances in the Caribbean,” unpublished. Washington, D.C.: International Monetary Fund.

Mouhoud E.M, J. Oudinet and E. Unan (2006). “Migration and Remittances in the Mediterra-nean Basin: The Case of Turkey,” Paris, France: Working Paper, CEPN-CNRS, No. 2006-10. Centre d’Economie de l’Universite de Paris Nord.

Paine, S. (1974). Exporting Workers: The Turkish Case, London: Cambridge University Press.

Quartey P. (2005). “Shared Growth in Ghana: Do Migrant Remittances Have a Role?” Cor-nell/ ISSER/ World Bank International Conference on Shared Growth in Africa, Acra, Ghana.

Quibria, M. G. (1996). “Migration, Remittances and Trade: With Special Reference to Asian Developing Economies.” in P.J. Lloyd and S. Williams (Eds), International Trade and Mi-gration in the APEC Region, Melbourne: Oxford University Press, pp. 84-98.

Ratha, D. (2003). “Workers Remittances: an Important and Stable Source of External Devel-opment Finance,” Global Development Finance, Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, pp.157-175.

Russell, S. (1992). “Migrant Remittances and Development” International Migration: Quarterly Review 30 (3/4): 267-287.

Saca, S. S and L. R. Cáceres (2006). “What Do Remittances Do? Analyzing the Private Remit-tance Transmission Mechanism in El Salvador,” Washington, D.C.: IMF Working Pa-per, No. 06/250.

Sayan, S. (2004). “Guest Workers’ Remittances and Output Fluctuations in Host and Home Countries: The Case of Remittances from Turkish Workers,” Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 40 (6): 68-81.

Schiopu, I. and N. Siegfried (2006). “Determinants of Workers’ Remittances Evidence From the European Neighbouring Region,” Frankfurt, Germany: European Central Bank Working Paper, No. 688.

Stahl, C and A. Habib (1991). “Emigration and Development in South and Southeast Asia,” in Papademetriou, D.G. and Martin, P. (eds.): The Unsettled Relationship: Labour Migration and Economic Development, Westport: Contributions in Labour Studies, No. 33, Greenwood Press.

State Planning Organization (SPO) (2003). Economic and Social Indicators (1950-2003), Ankara: SPO.

Statistical Institute of Turkey (TURKSTAT) (2002). Statistical Yearbook of Turkey, Ankara: TURKSTAT.

Stewart, J and L.Gill (1998). Econometrics, Second Edition, Hempstead: Prentice Hall.

Turkish Labor Office, (2001). İstatistik Yıllığı, Ankara: Çalışma ve Sosyal Güvenlik Bakanlığı, Türkiye İş Kurumu Genel Müdürlüğü.

World Bank (2006). Global Economic Prospects: Economic Implications of Remittances and Migra-tion. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank Report No. 34320.

Yiğit, F. P. E. (2005). “İsçi Gelirleri ve Büyümedeki Çevrimler Arasındaki İlişki”, Ankara: Spe-cialization Thesis, TCMB İsçi Dövizleri Genel Müdürlüğü.


  • There are currently no refbacks.

Transnational Press London

Copyright © 2003-2018 Migration Letters / Transnational Press London | All rights reserved | Contact Us