Forecasting migrant remittances during the global financial crisis
The financial crisis has highlighted the need for forecasts of remittance flows in many developing countries where these flows have proved to be a lifeline to the poor people and the economy. This note describes a simple methodology for forecasting country-level remittance flows in a manner consistent with the medium-term outlook for the global economy. Remittances are assumed to depend on bilateral migration stocks and income levels in the host country and the origin country. Changes in remittance costs, shifts in remittance channels, global exchange rate movements and unpredictable immigration controls in the migrant-destination countries pose risks to the forecasts. Much remains to be done to improve the forecast methodology, data on bilateral flows, and high-frequency monitoring of migration and remittance flows.
Adams, Richard (2009). “The Determinants of International Remittances in Developing Countries.” World Development Vol. 37(1), pp. 93-103. January.
Adams, Richard H., and John Page. (2005). “Do International Migration and Remittances Re-duce Poverty in Developing Countries?” World Development 33 (10): 1645-1669.
Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina, and Susan Pozo (2010). “New Evidence on the Role of Remit-tances on Health Care Expenditures by Mexican Households.” Review of Economics of the Household.
Avendano, Rolando, Norbert Gaillard and Sebastián Nieto Parra (2009). “Are working remit-tances relevant for credit rating agencies?” OECD Working Paper 282, Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development, Paris.
Barajas, Adolfo, Ralph Chami, Connel Fullenkamp, and Anjali Garg (2010). “The Global Fi-nancial Crisis and Workers’ Remittances to Africa: What’s the Damage?” IMF Work-ing Paper 10/24, International Monetary Fund. January.
Bugamelli, Matteo, and Francesco Paterno (2009). “Do workers' remittances reduce the probability of current account reversals?” World Development 37(12), pp. 1821-1838. December.
Chami, Ralph, Dalia Hakura, and Peter Montiel (2009). “Remittances: An Automatic Stabi-lizer?” IMF Working Paper 09/91, International Monetary Fund.
Clarke, George, and Scott Wallsten (2004). “Do Remittances Protect Household in Develop-ing Countries against Shocks? Evidence from a Natural Disaster in Jamaica.” Mimeo, World Bank, Washington, DC.
El-Sakka, M.I.T, and Robert McNabb (1999). “The macroeconomic determinants of emigrant remittances.” World Development Vol. 27, pp. 1493–1502
Fajnzylber, Pablo, and Humberto Lopez (2007). Close to home: The development impact of remittances in Latin America. Washington, DC: World Bank.
Faini, Riccardo (2007). “Remittances and the brain drain: Do more skilled migrants remit more?” World Bank Economic Review Vol. 21, pp. 177–191.
Frankel, Jeffrey A. (2009). “Are Bilateral Remittances Countercyclical?” NBER Working Paper w15419. October.
Freund, Caroline, and Nikola Spatafora (2008). “Remittances, transaction costs, and informal-ity.” Journal of Development Economics Vol. 86, pp. 356–366.
Giuliano, Paola, and Marta Ruiz-Arranz (2009). “Remittances, Financial Development and Growth.” Journal of Development Economics 90(1), pp. 144-152. September.
Glytsos, Nicholas (1997). “Remitting behavior of ‘temporary’ and ‘permanent’ migrants: The case of Greeks in Germany and Australia.” Labour Vol. 11, pp. 409–435.
Gupta, Sanjeev, Catherine A. Pattillo, and Smita Wagh (2009). “Impact of Remittances on Poverty and Financial Development in Sub-Saharan Africa.” World Development 37(1), pp. 104–115.
Harrison, Anne, Tolani Britton, and Annika Swanson (2004). “Working Abroad: The Benefits Flowing from Nationals Working in Other Economies.” Paper prepared for the Meet-ing of the Technical Subgroup for the Task Force on International Trade in Services, Movement of Natural Persons – Mode 4, Paris, September. Statistics Division, United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs.
Hildebrandt, Nicole, and David McKenzie (2005). “The Effects of Migration on Child Health in Mexico.” Economia.
Lueth, Erik, and Marta Ruiz-Arranz (2007). “Determinants of Bilateral Remittance Flows.” The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics Vol. 8(1). October
Gibson, John, David McKenzie, and Halahingano Rohorua (2006). “How cost elastic are re-mittances? Evidence from Tongan migrants in New Zealand.” Pacific Economic Bulletin, Vol. 21(1), pp. 112-128.
Merkle, Lucie and Klaus Zimmermann (1992). “Savings, Remittances, and Return Migration” Economic Letters 38, pp. 77-81.
Mohapatra, Sanket, George Joseph, and Dilip Ratha (2009). “Remittances and Natural Disas-ters: Ex-Post Response and Contribution to Ex-Ante Preparedness.” Policy Research Working Paper 4972, World Bank, Washington DC.
Parsons, Christopher R., Ronald Skeldon, Terrie L. Walmsley, and L. Alan Winters (2005). “Quantifying the International Bilateral Movements of Migrants.” Globalisation and Poverty Working Paper T13, Development Research Centre on Migration, University of Sussex.
Parsons, Christopher R., Ronald Skeldon, Terrie L. Walmsley, and L. Alan Winters (2007). “Quantifying International Migration: A Database of Bilateral Migrant Stocks.” Policy Research Working Paper 4165, World Bank. March.
Ratha, Dilip (2005). “Worker Remittances: An Important and Stable Source of External De-velopment Finance.” In Samuel M. Maimbo and Dilip Ratha (eds), Remittances: Devel-opment Impact and Future Prospects. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank.
Ratha, Dilip (2007). “Leveraging Remittances for Development.” Policy Brief, Migration Policy Institute, Washington DC.
Ratha, Dilip (2010). “Mobilize the Diaspora for the Reconstruction of Haiti.” Haiti: Now and Next, Social Science Research Council (SSRC), New York. (available at http://www.ssrc.org/features/pages/haiti-now-and-next/1338/1438/)
Ratha, Dilip, Prabal De, and Sanket Mohapatra (2010a). “Shadow Sovereign Ratings for Un-rated Developing Countries.” World Development (forthcoming).
Ratha, Dilip, and William Shaw (2007). “South-South Migration and Remittances.” World Bank Working Paper No. 102, World Bank, Washington DC.
Ratha, Dilip and Sanket Mohapatra (2009). “Revised Outlook for Remittance Flows 2009‐2011: Remittances expected to fall by 5 to 8 percent in 2009.” Migration and Develop-ment Brief 9, World Bank, Washington DC. March.
Ratha, Dilip, Sanket Mohapatra, and Ani Silwal (2009a). “Outlook for Remittance Flows 2009-2011: Remittances expected to fall by 7-10 percent in 2009.” Migration and Develop-ment Brief 10, World Bank, Washington DC. July.
Ratha, Dilip, Sanket Mohapatra, and Ani Silwal (2009b). “Migration and Remittance Trends 2009: A better-than-expected outcome so far, but significant risks ahead.” Migration and Development Brief 11, World Bank, Washington DC. November.
Ratha, Dilip, Sanket Mohapatra, and Ani Silwal (2010b). “Outlook for Remittance Flows 2010-11: Remittance flows to developing countries remained resilient in 2009, expected to recover during 2010-11.” Migration and Development Brief 12, World Bank, Washington DC. April.
Ratha, Dilip, Sanket Mohapatra, and Zhimei Xu (2008) “Outlook for Remittance Flows 2008-10: Growth expected to moderate significantly, but flows to remain resilient.” Migra-tion and Development Brief 8, World Bank, Washington DC. November.
Ruiz, Isabel, and Carlos Vargas-Silva (2010). “Another consequence of the economic crisis: a decrease in migrants' remittances.” Applied Financial Economics, Vol. 20(1&2), pp. 171 – 182. January.
Singh, Raju J., Markus Haacker, and Kyung-woo Lee (2009). “Determinants and Macroeco-nomic Impact of Remittances to Sub-Saharan Africa.” IMF Working Paper 09/216, In-ternational Monetary Fund, Washington DC.
Swamy, Gurushri (1981). “International Migrant Workers’ Remittances: Issues and Pro-spects.” Staff Working Paper 481. The World Bank, Washington, D.C.
Valero-Gil, Jorge N. (2009). “Remittances and the household's expenditures on health.” Jour-nal of Business Strategies. Spring.
Vargas-Silva, Carlos, and Peng Huang (2006). Macroeconomic Determinants of Workers’ Remittances: Host versus Home Country’s Economic Conditions.” Journal of Interna-tional Trade and Economic Development, Vol. 15(1), pp. 81-99. March
Yang, Dean (2008a). “Coping With Disaster: The Impact of Hurricanes on International Fi-nancial Flows, 1970-2002.” The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, Vol. 8(1). June.
Yang, Dean and HwaJung Choi (2007). “Are Remittances Insurance? Evidence from Rainfall Shocks in the Philippines.” World Bank Economic Review 21(2), pp. 219-48.
World Bank (2005). Global Economic Prospects 2006: Economic Implications of Remittances and Migration. World Bank, Washington DC.
World Bank (2009). Global Development Finance 2009: Charting a Global Recovery. World Bank, Washington DC.
World Bank (2010a). Migration and Factbook 2011 (forthcoming)
World Bank (2010b). World Bank’s Remittances Prices Worldwide database (available at remit-tanceprices.worldbank.org)
- There are currently no refbacks.
Copyright © 2003-2018 Migration Letters / Transnational Press London | All rights reserved | Contact Us
TRANSNATIONAL PRESS LONDON LTD. IS A COMPANY REGISTERED IN ENGLAND AND WALES No. 8771684.